Now Overheating 3M Overheating 6M Late cycle 1Y Late cycle CPI 3.4% +0.1 CPI energy 16.1% +1.6 PPI 5.4% +0.6 Michigan 4.2 -0.4 Jobless 4.1 0.0 Philly Fed 47.4 +6.0
WTI 103.43 +3.4 US 10Y 4.979 +0.0 S&P 500 7609.25 -50.2 Nasdaq 100 29060.0 -327.0 Gold 4317.0 -49.2 Dow 52800.0 +215.0 Trident Dow LONG 52798.0 Trident S&P 500 LONG 7609.25 Trident Nasdaq 100 LONG 29060.0 Trident Crude SHORT 103.43 Trident Gold LONG 4317.0 Trident Euro LONG 1.1582
CrowdMood

Oil, yields, and household mood.
한국어

2026-09-14 · 4 min · CrowdMood Desk

Desk note 2026-09-14: rate cuts cannot cap the 10-year

Official and near-official prints this round: US CPI 334.131 (+1.318, 2026-08-01), US unemployment 4.1 (0, 2026-08-01), WTI spot 97.26 (+3.05, 2026-09-09), US 10Y 4.95 (+0.12, 2026-09-10). Tape: WTI 104.18 (4.13), US 10Y 4.987 (0.012).

On the desk chain

Oil and the 10-year travelled together. That is the desk chain: energy tightness feeding goods inflation, then term premium, then a higher discount rate on duration. The funds rate is not the wrecking ball. The long end is. The CPI print did not volunteer to be transitory. Crude’s prong is already fading a stretch even as the spot print rose: tape first, speech second.

Trident

WTI short · Gold stand · Dow long · Nasdaq 100 stand · KOSPI 200 stand · Euro long. Stance only. Construction unpublished. If crude confirms a Strait scare, or Nasdaq stays long while the 10-year lurches, believe the tape first.

This note is education, not a ticket. The next note is a check on this one.

CrowdMood does not recommend buying or selling anything. Notes, charts, and figures on this site are information only — not investment advice. Any investment decision, and any loss, is yours. We take no responsibility for it.