Trident
CrowdMood Trident
Six markets, one board. The question is whether crude is loud while duration is mute.
Trident
CrowdMood Trident is a long/short overlay on Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, WTI, gold, and euro FX. Stance and a sample track versus buy-and-hold.
Dow
LongLast · 3 bars since last turn
- 2Y +20.6% Buy & hold +19.0% Excess +1.6%
- 1Y +19.9% Buy & hold +11.6% Excess +8.3%
- 6M +7.8% Buy & hold +5.5% Excess +2.3%
- 3M +0.6% Buy & hold -0.5% Excess +1.1%
- 1M -2.1% Buy & hold +1.0% Excess -3.1%
S&P 500
LongLast · 7 bars since last turn
- 2Y +23.0% Buy & hold +22.4% Excess +0.6%
- 1Y +1.0% Buy & hold +11.1% Excess -10.1%
- 6M +1.9% Buy & hold +5.7% Excess -3.8%
- 3M -0.8% Buy & hold +2.0% Excess -2.8%
- 1M +0.2% Buy & hold -0.9% Excess +1.1%
Nasdaq 100
LongLast · 8 bars since last turn
- 2Y +30.5% Buy & hold +32.6% Excess -2.1%
- 1Y +4.8% Buy & hold +5.8% Excess -1.0%
- 6M -0.2% Buy & hold +1.3% Excess -1.5%
- 3M +8.6% Buy & hold +1.7% Excess +6.9%
- 1M -5.6% Buy & hold -5.6% Excess 0.0%
Crude
LongLast · 4 bars since last turn
- 2Y +64.2% Buy & hold +116.1% Excess -51.9%
- 1Y +16.5% Buy & hold +143.9% Excess -127.4%
- 6M +9.8% Buy & hold +42.3% Excess -32.5%
- 3M +34.9% Buy & hold +51.8% Excess -16.9%
- 1M +10.8% Buy & hold +20.8% Excess -10.0%
Gold
LongLast · 21 bars since last turn
- 2Y +6.8% Buy & hold +100.9% Excess -94.1%
- 1Y -2.7% Buy & hold +30.5% Excess -33.2%
- 6M -10.9% Buy & hold -7.6% Excess -3.3%
- 3M -7.7% Buy & hold -0.8% Excess -6.9%
- 1M -4.9% Buy & hold -4.9% Excess 0.0%
Euro
LongLast · 11 bars since last turn
- 2Y +13.3% Buy & hold +4.6% Excess +8.7%
- 1Y -5.6% Buy & hold -3.7% Excess -1.9%
- 6M -5.4% Buy & hold -4.5% Excess -0.9%
- 3M -3.8% Buy & hold -2.9% Excess -0.9%
- 1M -1.4% Buy & hold -1.4% Excess 0.0%
Yahoo vendor futures series, with no heuristic roll-gap deletion. Next-bar model return. Long and short. About two years when available. No costs. Not a live account.
Evaluation method
- Data
- Yahoo Finance chart feed; delayed and not exchange-certified. Last successful cache remains labelled when refresh fails.
- Instrument
- Front-month futures symbols, converted to a backward-ratio continuous series when a roll gap is detected.
- Bars and refresh
- 180-minute bars. Cache target: 20 minutes. The visible timestamp is the source bar or fetch time, not a live execution time.
- Entry and reversal
- The volume-ratio overlay turns long after an upward cross of 100 and short after a downward cross of 300. Returns start on the next bar.
- Benchmark
- Buy-and-hold on the same adjusted continuous series and the same sample window.
- Costs
- Headline results exclude commissions, bid-ask spread, slippage, financing, tax, and contract-specific roll cost. They are not cost-adjusted performance.
- P&L state
- Closed turns are realized model legs. The final open turn is marked open and remains unrealized.
- Sample
- The available intraday feed is roughly two years and can contain unavailable periods. This is a simulation, not a live account.
What Trident is
Trident is named for the futures that sit on this desk’s chain: Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (duration, including the AI multiple), WTI (the barrel), gold (the real-rate check), and euro FX (dollar and liquidity). The same read sits on all six so a split is visible. We publish stance, a sample track versus buy-and-hold, and the trade list — long in, short in, P&L per closed turn — out to about two years, as far as the 180-minute feed goes.
The card chart is price, not the overlay. Dates sit on the x-axis; last print sits on the y-axis. Open a prong for a longer window. If the last turn was many bars ago, the tape should look quiet. That stretch is part of the record.
Thesis
If crude’s Trident prong confirms a Strait column, or the Dow prong rolls while AI headlines stay euphoric, that is the check. The next note is a test of the last one.
The desk letter
Operators who want the columns in the mail can take the desk letter. That product is not Trident, and it is not a promised Sharpe.
- No execution, brokerage, or guaranteed edge.
- If the futures feed dies, we show the last cache and say so.
- Quiet prongs stay on the board. They are part of the record.