Now Overheating 3M Overheating 6M Late cycle 1Y Late cycle
CPI 3.7% +0.4 CPI energy 20.4% +4.3 PPI 6.5% +0.2 Michigan 4.6 +0.6 Jobless 4.1 -0.1 Philly Fed 20.9 -16.9 WTI 88.92 +0.2 US 10Y 5.154 +0.1 S&P 500 7561.0 -54.2 Nasdaq 100 27927.25 -457.2 Gold 3887.6 +2.3 Dow 52347.0 -43.0 Trident Dow LONG 52347.0 Trident S&P 500 LONG 7561.0 Trident Nasdaq 100 LONG 27927.25 Trident Crude LONG 88.92 Trident Gold LONG 3887.6 Trident Euro LONG 1.1036
CrowdMood
Research

Rates · commodities · the cycle
한국어
2026-09-25 11:02 UTC Research 6 min read Original

CrowdMood Column

Metals with the 10-year watching: Gold price slides as oil, Fed rate concerns lift dollar

Mining: Gold price slides as oil, Fed rate concerns lift dollar

This desk stays constructive on gold and silver. A firmer 10-year is supposed to kill that bid. Sometimes it does not. That split is information: real-rate math versus a goods-and-energy inflation the long end has not finished pricing.

The desk chain

Gold price slides as oil, Fed rate concerns lift dollar sits next to the barrel, not instead of it. Oil tightness that CPI still has to eat can keep term premium alive while the FOMC sounds friendly. Metals are the present tense. Grain is the lag. Tape: WTI 93.04 (-1.57), US 10Y 5.162 (+0.048), gold 4341.9 (+43.9).

Outlook, and what would falsify it

If the 10-year rises sharply and bullion falls with it, the bid depended on rate-cut expectations. If yields grind higher and gold holds, the inflation case remains intact. Falsify a persistent metal bid with a 10-year that rises for growth reasons while crude and war-risk go quiet.