Accountability
Thesis Tracker
A thesis is not marked right because another column repeated it. Status changes require new evidence, and revisions remain in the public history.
Oil supply
Evidence holds
Deliverable oil supply remains tighter than headline capacity
Decline curves, constrained export routes, and demand from emerging-market transport keep deliverable barrels tighter than announced spare capacity suggests.
- First published
- 2026-09-14
- Observation window
- Multi-quarter; route disruptions are checked as they occur.
- Updates
- 2
Rates
Verification in progress
The 10-year yield, not only the policy rate, constrains duration
Persistent energy inflation, term premium, and issuance can keep long yields restrictive even when policy-rate expectations ease.
- First published
- 2026-09-13
- Observation window
- Six to twelve months.
- Updates
- 1
AI capital spending
Verification in progress
AI capital spending can outrun paying end demand
Circular bookings and cheap-duration assumptions can fund data halls faster than outside customers generate cash.
- First published
- 2026-09-13
- Observation window
- Two to eight quarters.
- Updates
- 2