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Now Overheating 3M Overheating 6M Late cycle 1Y Late cycle

CPI 3.4% +0.1 CPI energy 16.1% +1.6 PPI 5.4% +0.6 Michigan 4.2 -0.4 Jobless 4.1 0.0 Philly Fed 37.8 -9.6 WTI 91.97 -2.6 US 10Y 5.192 +0.0 S&P 500 7801.5 +34.5 Nasdaq 100 30911.25 +144.5 Gold 4326.5 +28.5 Dow 52099.0 +382.0 Trident Dow LONG 52099.0 Trident S&P 500 LONG 7801.5 Trident Nasdaq 100 LONG 30910.25 Trident Crude LONG 91.97 Trident Gold LONG 4326.5 Trident Euro LONG 1.143

2026-09-25 15:18 UTC Data update 4 min read Original

Michigan 2026-08: households still pay the bill

Michigan 1Y inflation exp. 4 (-0.20 from prior, 2026-08).

The desk read

Softer inflation expectations are not a solved CPI. The survey moves with gasoline headlines. If the barrel is quiet because China shut the tap, the expectation print can sag while the geology stays tight. Keep the household tape next to WTI, not next to a victory lap. Tape: WTI 94.04, US 10Y 5.209.

Source record

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