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Now Overheating 3M Overheating 6M Late cycle 1Y Late cycle

CPI 3.7% +0.4 CPI energy 20.4% +4.3 PPI 6.3% +0.8 Michigan 4.6 +0.6 Jobless 4.2 +0.1 Philly Fed 20.9 -16.9 WTI 103.2 +1.2 US 10Y 4.989 -0.1 S&P 500 7681.25 -73.0 Nasdaq 100 28966.25 -595.8 Gold 4001.4 -30.0 Dow 52405.0 -107.0 Trident Dow LONG 52405.0 Trident S&P 500 LONG 7681.25 Trident Nasdaq 100 LONG 28966.5 Trident Crude LONG 103.2 Trident Gold LONG 4001.4 Trident Euro LONG 1.1211

2026-10-02 13:47 UTC Data update 4 min read Original

CrowdMood Column

Jobs 2026-09: labor can hold while the long end still bites

Nonfarm payrolls 159,044 (+29k, 2026-09) · Unemployment 4.2 (+0.10 from prior, 2026-09).

The desk read

Softer labor gets priced as an imminent cut. The 10-year only cooperates if inflation — especially energy and shelter — actually rolls. A weaker payroll next to a firm CPI energy print is not a disinflation victory. It is the ugly split. Household mood can sag while tickets still clear. Duration is still marked by the long rate. Tape: WTI 89.1, US 10Y 5.201.