Now Overheating 3M Overheating 6M Late cycle 1Y Late cycle
CPI 3.7% +0.4 CPI energy 20.4% +4.3 PPI 6.3% +0.8 Michigan 4.6 +0.6 Jobless 4.2 +0.1 Philly Fed 20.9 -16.9 WTI 103.2 +1.2 US 10Y 4.989 -0.1 S&P 500 7681.25 -73.0 Nasdaq 100 28966.25 -595.8 Gold 4001.4 -30.0 Dow 52405.0 -107.0 Trident Dow LONG 52405.0 Trident S&P 500 LONG 7681.25 Trident Nasdaq 100 LONG 28966.5 Trident Crude LONG 103.2 Trident Gold LONG 4001.4 Trident Euro LONG 1.1211
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Research

Rates · commodities · the cycle

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Trident

Euro

Euro FX. Liquidity prong. · 2026-10-30 03:00 UTC

Last 1.1211

Long

11 bars since last turn

Sample total +13.2% Buy & hold +4.5%
Excess +8.7%
CAGR +6.5% Buy & hold +2.3%
Time in 98.9%
Closed turns 64 Win rate 57.8%
Max pullback -7.2%

Vendor futures price. UTC on the x-axis, price on the y-axis.

1.121.1326-09-3026-10-0726-10-1526-10-2226-10-30PriceUTC

Trident (green) vs holding the contract (grey). Index starts at 100.

TridentBuy & hold105.0110.0115.026-09-3026-10-0726-10-1526-10-2226-10-30IndexUTC

Yahoo vendor futures series, with no heuristic roll-gap deletion. Next-bar model return. Long and short. About two years when available. No costs. Not a live account.

Trade history

  1. 2026-09-08 09:00 UTC · Open Long in 1.1616 -3.5%
  2. 2026-09-04 00:00 UTC Short in 1.1631 +0.1%
  3. 2026-08-26 00:00 UTC Long in 1.1676 -0.4%
  4. 2026-08-17 09:00 UTC Short in 1.1606 -0.6%
  5. 2026-08-13 12:00 UTC Long in 1.1558 +0.4%
  6. 2026-08-06 06:00 UTC Short in 1.156 0.0%
  7. 2026-08-05 06:00 UTC Long in 1.1553 +0.1%
  8. 2026-07-30 18:00 UTC Short in 1.1549 -0.0%
  9. 2026-04-17 12:00 UTC Long in 1.1846 -2.5%
  10. 2026-04-14 15:00 UTC Short in 1.183 -0.1%
  11. 2026-04-07 12:00 UTC Long in 1.1609 +1.9%
  12. 2026-04-02 09:00 UTC Short in 1.1555 -0.5%
  13. 2026-03-26 12:00 UTC Long in 1.159 -0.3%
  14. 2026-03-23 15:00 UTC Short in 1.1648 +0.5%
  15. 2026-03-19 09:00 UTC Long in 1.1528 +1.0%
  16. 2026-03-18 12:00 UTC Short in 1.1566 +0.3%
  17. 2026-03-17 00:00 UTC Long in 1.1544 +0.2%
  18. 2026-03-10 15:00 UTC Short in 1.1648 +0.9%
  19. 2026-01-28 18:00 UTC Long in 1.1973 -2.7%
  20. 2026-01-26 15:00 UTC Short in 1.1906 -0.6%
  21. 2025-12-16 12:00 UTC Long in 1.1852 +0.5%
  22. 2025-12-12 18:00 UTC Short in 1.1793 -0.5%
  23. 2025-12-04 03:00 UTC Long in 1.1665 +1.1%
  24. 2025-12-01 21:00 UTC Short in 1.1615 -0.4%
  25. 2025-11-12 03:00 UTC Long in 1.1597 +0.2%
  26. 2025-11-10 09:00 UTC Short in 1.1586 -0.1%
  27. 2025-10-30 03:00 UTC Long in 1.1653 -0.6%
  28. 2025-10-28 18:00 UTC Short in 1.1682 +0.2%
  29. 2025-10-24 03:00 UTC Long in 1.1638 +0.4%
  30. 2025-10-17 00:00 UTC Short in 1.1743 +0.9%
  31. 2025-10-02 15:00 UTC Long in 1.1762 -0.2%
  32. 2025-09-30 09:00 UTC Short in 1.1794 +0.3%
  33. 2025-09-18 15:00 UTC Long in 1.1846 -0.4%
  34. 2025-09-17 09:00 UTC Short in 1.19 +0.5%
  35. 2025-09-04 18:00 UTC Long in 1.1657 +2.1%
  36. 2025-08-29 15:00 UTC Short in 1.1709 +0.4%
  37. 2025-08-21 06:00 UTC Long in 1.1673 +0.3%
  38. 2025-08-13 15:00 UTC Short in 1.1731 +0.5%
  39. 2025-08-12 00:00 UTC Long in 1.165 +0.7%
  40. 2025-08-07 09:00 UTC Short in 1.1673 +0.2%
  41. 2025-08-04 06:00 UTC Long in 1.159 +0.7%
  42. 2025-07-22 21:00 UTC Short in 1.1781 +1.6%
  43. 2025-07-04 15:00 UTC Long in 1.1831 -0.4%
  44. 2025-06-26 03:00 UTC Short in 1.1746 -0.7%
  45. 2025-06-23 12:00 UTC Long in 1.1595 +1.3%
  46. 2025-06-12 18:00 UTC Short in 1.1588 -0.1%
  47. 2025-06-04 21:00 UTC Long in 1.1428 +1.4%
  48. 2025-06-02 15:00 UTC Short in 1.1432 0.0%
  49. 2025-05-23 12:00 UTC Long in 1.1361 +0.6%
  50. 2025-05-22 06:00 UTC Short in 1.1318 -0.4%
  51. 2025-04-15 21:00 UTC Long in 1.1332 -0.1%
  52. 2025-04-14 09:00 UTC Short in 1.1427 +0.8%
  53. 2025-04-07 15:00 UTC Long in 1.0984 +4.0%
  54. 2025-04-04 12:00 UTC Short in 1.103 +0.4%
  55. 2025-03-11 06:00 UTC Long in 1.092 +1.0%
  56. 2025-03-06 03:00 UTC Short in 1.0816 -1.0%
  57. 2025-02-10 15:00 UTC Long in 1.033 +4.7%
  58. 2025-02-06 06:00 UTC Short in 1.0383 +0.5%
  59. 2025-01-28 12:00 UTC Long in 1.0455 -0.7%
  60. 2025-01-27 12:00 UTC Short in 1.0533 +0.7%
  61. 2025-01-21 15:00 UTC Long in 1.0447 +0.8%
  62. 2025-01-15 15:00 UTC Short in 1.0314 -1.3%
  63. 2024-12-23 03:00 UTC Long in 1.0479 -1.6%
  64. 2024-12-17 06:00 UTC Short in 1.0532 +0.5%
  65. 2024-11-18 00:00 UTC Long in 1.0553 -0.2%

The curve is the downloaded session sample, marked to market, including the open turn. Long and short stay in the market.

All prongs