Now Overheating 3M Overheating 6M Late cycle 1Y Late cycle
CPI 3.7% +0.4 CPI energy 20.4% +4.3 PPI 6.3% +0.8 Michigan 4.6 +0.6 Jobless 4.2 +0.1 Philly Fed 20.9 -16.9 WTI 103.0 +1.0 US 10Y 4.989 -0.1 S&P 500 7686.75 -67.5 Nasdaq 100 29029.25 -532.8 Gold 4010.9 -20.5 Dow 52423.0 -89.0 Trident Dow LONG 52423.0 Trident S&P 500 LONG 7686.75 Trident Nasdaq 100 LONG 29029.25 Trident Crude LONG 103.0 Trident Gold LONG 4010.9 Trident Euro LONG 1.1206
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Rates · commodities · the cycle

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Trident

Dow

E-mini Dow. Trident overlay. · 2026-10-30 03:00 UTC

Last 52423.0

Long

3 bars since last turn

Sample total +20.7% Buy & hold +19.1%
Excess +1.6%
CAGR +10.0% Buy & hold +9.3%
Time in 99.5%
Closed turns 66 Win rate 53.0%
Max pullback -16.1%

Vendor futures price. UTC on the x-axis, price on the y-axis.

40,00045,00050,00055,00024-11-1025-05-1225-11-0526-05-0426-10-30PriceUTC

Trident (green) vs holding the contract (grey). Index starts at 100.

TridentBuy & hold100.0120.024-11-1025-05-1225-11-0526-05-0426-10-30IndexUTC

Yahoo vendor futures series, with no heuristic roll-gap deletion. Next-bar model return. Long and short. About two years when available. No costs. Not a live account.

Trade history

  1. 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC · Open Long in 52511.0 -0.2%
  2. 2026-10-19 09:00 UTC Short in 52080.0 -0.8%
  3. 2026-10-15 15:00 UTC Long in 52401.0 -0.6%
  4. 2026-10-13 12:00 UTC Short in 52033.0 -0.7%
  5. 2026-09-11 15:00 UTC Long in 52664.0 -1.2%
  6. 2026-09-04 06:00 UTC Short in 53727.0 +2.0%
  7. 2026-08-26 18:00 UTC Long in 53727.0 0.0%
  8. 2026-08-25 12:00 UTC Short in 53520.0 -0.4%
  9. 2026-08-11 00:00 UTC Long in 54050.0 -1.0%
  10. 2026-08-06 12:00 UTC Short in 54315.0 +0.5%
  11. 2026-06-22 12:00 UTC Long in 52136.0 +4.2%
  12. 2026-06-16 03:00 UTC Short in 52145.0 0.0%
  13. 2026-06-04 00:00 UTC Long in 50787.0 +2.7%
  14. 2026-05-29 15:00 UTC Short in 50972.0 +0.4%
  15. 2026-05-28 12:00 UTC Long in 50679.0 +0.6%
  16. 2026-05-26 12:00 UTC Short in 50612.0 -0.1%
  17. 2026-05-13 00:00 UTC Long in 49841.0 +1.5%
  18. 2026-05-07 12:00 UTC Short in 49992.0 +0.3%
  19. 2026-04-22 12:00 UTC Long in 49727.0 +0.5%
  20. 2026-04-15 12:00 UTC Short in 48541.0 -2.4%
  21. 2026-03-17 12:00 UTC Long in 47541.0 +2.1%
  22. 2026-03-10 03:00 UTC Short in 47686.0 +0.3%
  23. 2026-02-11 12:00 UTC Long in 50390.0 -5.4%
  24. 2026-02-10 15:00 UTC Short in 50451.0 +0.1%
  25. 2026-01-16 06:00 UTC Long in 49694.0 +1.5%
  26. 2026-01-12 09:00 UTC Short in 49356.0 -0.7%
  27. 2026-01-08 12:00 UTC Long in 49285.0 +0.1%
  28. 2026-01-07 12:00 UTC Short in 49620.0 +0.7%
  29. 2025-12-22 15:00 UTC Long in 48774.0 +1.7%
  30. 2025-12-12 18:00 UTC Short in 48479.0 -0.6%
  31. 2025-12-02 12:00 UTC Long in 47479.0 +2.1%
  32. 2025-11-27 03:00 UTC Short in 47512.0 +0.1%
  33. 2025-11-20 06:00 UTC Long in 46479.0 +4.3%
  34. 2025-11-12 15:00 UTC Short in 48438.0 +4.0%
  35. 2025-11-06 03:00 UTC Long in 47392.0 +2.2%
  36. 2025-10-29 00:00 UTC Short in 47847.0 +1.0%
  37. 2025-10-23 12:00 UTC Long in 46798.0 +2.2%
  38. 2025-10-22 12:00 UTC Short in 47022.0 +0.5%
  39. 2025-10-20 12:00 UTC Long in 46819.0 +0.4%
  40. 2025-10-15 15:00 UTC Short in 46543.0 -0.6%
  41. 2025-09-22 15:00 UTC Long in 46709.0 -0.4%
  42. 2025-09-18 12:00 UTC Short in 46492.0 -0.5%
  43. 2025-09-03 06:00 UTC Long in 45328.0 +2.6%
  44. 2025-08-28 12:00 UTC Short in 45528.0 +0.4%
  45. 2025-08-19 03:00 UTC Long in 44917.0 +1.4%
  46. 2025-08-14 15:00 UTC Short in 44895.0 -0.0%
  47. 2025-07-25 12:00 UTC Long in 44969.0 -0.2%
  48. 2025-07-23 12:00 UTC Short in 44902.0 -0.1%
  49. 2025-07-07 00:00 UTC Long in 44963.0 -0.1%
  50. 2025-06-25 12:00 UTC Short in 43353.0 -3.7%
  51. 2025-05-26 03:00 UTC Long in 42021.0 +3.2%
  52. 2025-05-20 00:00 UTC Short in 42842.0 +1.9%
  53. 2025-05-07 15:00 UTC Long in 41132.0 +4.2%
  54. 2025-04-30 03:00 UTC Short in 40585.0 -1.3%
  55. 2025-04-03 15:00 UTC Long in 41114.0 -3.1%
  56. 2025-04-02 18:00 UTC Short in 42035.0 +2.2%
  57. 2025-03-28 03:00 UTC Long in 42641.0 -1.4%
  58. 2025-03-26 06:00 UTC Short in 42852.0 +0.5%
  59. 2025-03-21 00:00 UTC Long in 41991.0 +2.1%
  60. 2025-03-18 06:00 UTC Short in 41872.0 -0.3%
  61. 2025-02-07 09:00 UTC Long in 44902.0 -6.7%
  62. 2025-02-06 15:00 UTC Short in 44896.0 -0.0%
  63. 2025-01-30 15:00 UTC Long in 44999.0 -0.2%
  64. 2025-01-22 21:00 UTC Short in 44340.0 -1.5%
  65. 2024-12-30 09:00 UTC Long in 43273.0 +2.5%
  66. 2024-12-27 15:00 UTC Short in 43151.0 -0.3%
  67. 2024-11-13 12:00 UTC Long in 44126.0 -2.0%

The curve is the downloaded session sample, marked to market, including the open turn. Long and short stay in the market.

All prongs