Now Overheating 3M Overheating 6M Late cycle 1Y Late cycle
CPI 3.4% +0.1 CPI energy 16.1% +1.6 PPI 5.4% +0.6 Michigan 4.2 -0.4 Jobless 4.1 0.0 Philly Fed 37.8 -9.6 WTI 89.85 -5.9 US 10Y 4.968 +0.0 S&P 500 7827.75 -5.8 Nasdaq 100 31002.0 +217.2 Gold 4396.2 +12.3 Dow 52251.0 -224.0 Trident Dow LONG 52251.0 Trident S&P 500 LONG 7827.75 Trident Nasdaq 100 SHORT 31002.0 Trident Crude LONG 89.85 Trident Gold LONG 4396.2 Trident Euro LONG 1.149
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Research

Rates · commodities · the cycle
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Rates

The 10-year yield, not only the policy rate, constrains duration

Persistent energy inflation, term premium, and issuance can keep long yields restrictive even when policy-rate expectations ease.

Current status Verification in progress First published · 2026-09-13

Verification indicators

  • U.S. 10-year yield
  • market inflation expectations
  • energy CPI
  • Treasury issuance

Falsification conditions

  • Long yields fall persistently while energy and inflation expectations cool
  • Duration assets refinance without rising spreads or falling investment

Change history

Six to twelve months.
  1. Initial thesis Verification in progress

    New evidence: The first note defined the market yield as the constraint to track.

    Interpretation change: Initial publication.

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