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Oil supply

Deliverable oil supply remains tighter than headline capacity

Decline curves, constrained export routes, and demand from emerging-market transport keep deliverable barrels tighter than announced spare capacity suggests.

Current status Evidence holds First published · 2026-09-14

Verification indicators

  • U.S. tier-one shale decline rates and replacement drilling
  • OPEC+ barrels that load, rather than announced capacity
  • Yanbu, Hormuz, and Bab el-Mandeb loadings and insurance
  • OECD commercial and government inventories

Falsification conditions

  • Sustained spare capacity loading into ordinary freight and insurance conditions
  • Consumer-end inventories rebuilding while export nominations continue to clear
  • A durable fall in emerging-market transport demand, not a temporary import pause

Change history

Multi-quarter; route disruptions are checked as they occur.
  1. Yanbu loadings stopped Evidence holds

    New evidence: The cited shipping report said no crude loaded from Yanbu after 11 September.

    Interpretation change: Route risk strengthened the deliverable-supply part of the thesis. The long-run demand claim was unchanged.

  2. Initial thesis Verification in progress

    New evidence: The thesis separated announced spare capacity from barrels that can be loaded and delivered.

    Interpretation change: Initial publication.

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