Now Overheating 3M Overheating 6M Late cycle 1Y Late cycle
CPI 3.7% +0.4 CPI energy 20.4% +4.3 PPI 6.3% +0.8 Michigan 4.6 +0.6 Jobless 4.2 +0.1 Philly Fed 20.9 -16.9 WTI 103.2 +1.2 US 10Y 4.989 -0.1 S&P 500 7681.25 -73.0 Nasdaq 100 28966.25 -595.8 Gold 4001.4 -30.0 Dow 52405.0 -107.0 Trident Dow LONG 52405.0 Trident S&P 500 LONG 7681.25 Trident Nasdaq 100 LONG 28966.5 Trident Crude LONG 103.2 Trident Gold LONG 4001.4 Trident Euro LONG 1.1211
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Rates · commodities · the cycle
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2026-10-01 UTC · 1Y

The cycle

Official CPI, PPI, inflation expectations, and public factory surveys.

CPI and PPI are BLS prints via FRED, shown as 12-month percent change. Michigan is the University of Michigan 12-month inflation expectation. ISM PMI is licensed and not on this public tape; Philly Fed, Empire State, and Dallas Fed are the open factory surveys, 0 = no change. Chicago Fed activity is 0 at trend.

2026-10-01 · FRED

Official CPI, PPI, and Fed factory prints.

Now Overheating

Activity is hot while prices and household inflation expectations are still sticky. That is late-cycle heat, not a free lunch.

3M Overheating

The 10-year stays the constraint if energy does not cool. Duration does not get a hall pass.

6M Late cycle

The desk still treats oil tightness and term premium as the constraint, not a funds-rate slogan.

1Y Late cycle

The desk still treats oil tightness and term premium as the constraint, not a funds-rate slogan.

CPI by sector (YoY)

CPI headline

3.7%
+0.4

2026-09-01 · FRED CPIAUCSL

3.004.0026-02-01 2.4326-06-01 3.4626-09-01 3.7225-09-0126-01-0126-04-0126-06-0126-09-01% YoYUTC

CPI core

2.6%
+0.1

2026-09-01 · FRED CPILFESL

2.402.602.803.0026-09-01 2.5725-09-0126-01-0126-04-0126-06-0126-09-01% YoYUTC

CPI food

2.4%
-0.2

2026-09-01 · FRED CPIFABSL

2.503.0026-09-01 2.3925-09-0126-01-0126-04-0126-06-0126-09-01% YoYUTC

CPI energy

20.4%
+4.3

2026-09-01 · FRED CPIENGSL

0.00010.0020.002%26-02-01 0.40026-06-01 15.4526-09-01 20.3525-09-0126-01-0126-04-0126-06-0126-09-01% YoYUTC

CPI shelter

3.2%
+0.2

2026-09-01 · FRED CUSR0000SAH1

3.003.203.403.6026-09-01 3.2225-09-0126-01-0126-04-0126-06-0126-09-01% YoYUTC

PPI by sector (YoY)

PPI final demand

6.3%
+0.8

2026-09-01 · FRED PPIFIS

4.006.0026-06-01 5.5926-09-01 6.3525-10-0126-01-0126-04-0126-06-0126-09-01% YoYUTC

PPI core

5.0%
+0.2

2026-09-01 · FRED PPICOR

3.004.005.0026-09-01 4.9725-10-0126-01-0126-04-0126-06-0126-09-01% YoYUTC

PPI energy

41.7%
+14.4

2026-09-01 · FRED PPIENG

0.00020.0040.002%26-09-01 41.7125-10-0126-01-0126-04-0126-06-0126-09-01% YoYUTC

PPI farm products

1.6%
+3.5

2026-09-01 · FRED WPU01

-5.000.0005.002%26-02-01 -3.6226-06-01 1.9026-09-01 1.5525-10-0126-01-0126-04-0126-06-0126-09-01% YoYUTC

PPI manufacturing

12.8%
+2.6

2026-09-01 · FRED PCUOMFGOMFG

5.0010.002%26-02-01 2.6826-09-01 12.7725-10-0126-01-0126-04-0126-06-0126-09-01% YoYUTC

Inflation expectations

Michigan 1Y inflation exp.

4.6
+0.6

2026-09-01 · FRED MICH

3.504.004.5026-09-01 4.6025-10-0126-01-0126-04-0126-06-0126-09-01%UTC

10Y inflation breakeven

2.4
-0.0

2026-10-01 · FRED T10YIE

2.302.4026-10-01 2.3525-11-0126-02-0126-05-0126-07-0126-10-01%UTC

Cleveland Fed 1Y expected CPI

3.0
+0.3

2026-10-01 · FRED EXPINF1YR

2.503.003.5026-10-01 2.9825-11-0126-02-0126-05-0126-07-0126-10-01%UTC

Factory pulse (public Fed surveys)

Philly Fed factory

20.9
-16.9

2026-10-01 · FRED GACDFSA066MSFRBPHI

0.00020.0040.00026-09-01 37.8026-10-01 20.9025-11-0126-02-0126-05-0126-07-0126-10-01indexUTC

Empire State factory

25.5
+17.9

2026-10-01 · FRED GACDISA066MSFRBNY

0.00010.0020.00026-10-01 25.5025-11-0126-02-0126-05-0126-07-0126-10-01indexUTC

Dallas Fed factory

13.4
+3.6

2026-10-01 · FRED BACTSAMFRBDAL

-10.000.00010.00026-10-01 13.4025-11-0126-02-0126-05-0126-07-0126-10-01indexUTC

Chicago Fed activity

0.1
+0.1

2026-09-01 · FRED CFNAI

-0.5000.000026-09-01 0.07025-10-0126-01-0126-04-0126-06-0126-09-01indexUTC

Labor

Unemployment

4.2
+0.1

2026-09-01 · FRED UNRATE

4.204.4026-09-01 4.2025-09-0126-01-0126-04-0126-06-0126-09-01%UTC