2026-10-01 UTC · 3Y
The cycle
Official CPI, PPI, inflation expectations, and public factory surveys.
CPI and PPI are BLS prints via FRED, shown as 12-month percent change. Michigan is the University of Michigan 12-month inflation expectation. ISM PMI is licensed and not on this public tape; Philly Fed, Empire State, and Dallas Fed are the open factory surveys, 0 = no change. Chicago Fed activity is 0 at trend.
2026-10-01 · FRED
Official CPI, PPI, and Fed factory prints.
Now
Overheating
Activity is hot while prices and household inflation expectations are still sticky. That is late-cycle heat, not a free lunch.
3M
Overheating
The 10-year stays the constraint if energy does not cool. Duration does not get a hall pass.
6M
Late cycle
The desk still treats oil tightness and term premium as the constraint, not a funds-rate slogan.
1Y
Late cycle
The desk still treats oil tightness and term premium as the constraint, not a funds-rate slogan.
1Y
3Y
5Y
CPI by sector (YoY)
CPI headline
3.7%
+0.4
2026-09-01 · FRED CPIAUCSL
3.00 4.00 26-02-01 2.43 26-06-01 3.46 26-09-01 3.72 23-09-01 24-06-01 25-03-01 25-12-01 26-09-01 % YoY UTC
CPI core
2.6%
+0.1
2026-09-01 · FRED CPILFESL
2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 26-09-01 2.57 23-09-01 24-06-01 25-03-01 25-12-01 26-09-01 % YoY UTC
CPI food
2.4%
-0.2
2026-09-01 · FRED CPIFABSL
2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 2% 26-09-01 2.39 23-09-01 24-06-01 25-03-01 25-12-01 26-09-01 % YoY UTC
CPI energy
20.4%
+4.3
2026-09-01 · FRED CPIENGSL
0.000 10.00 20.00 2% 24-10-01 -4.80 26-06-01 15.45 26-09-01 20.35 23-09-01 24-06-01 25-03-01 25-12-01 26-09-01 % YoY UTC
CPI shelter
3.2%
+0.2
2026-09-01 · FRED CUSR0000SAH1
4.00 6.00 26-09-01 3.22 23-09-01 24-06-01 25-03-01 25-12-01 26-09-01 % YoY UTC
PPI by sector (YoY)
PPI final demand
6.3%
+0.8
2026-09-01 · FRED PPIFIS
2.00 4.00 6.00 2% 26-06-01 5.59 26-09-01 6.35 23-10-01 24-07-01 25-04-01 25-12-01 26-09-01 % YoY UTC
PPI core
5.0%
+0.2
2026-09-01 · FRED PPICOR
2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 2% 26-09-01 4.97 23-10-01 24-07-01 25-04-01 25-12-01 26-09-01 % YoY UTC
PPI energy
41.7%
+14.4
2026-09-01 · FRED PPIENG
-20.00 0.000 20.00 40.00 2% 24-07-01 1.47 26-02-01 2.73 26-09-01 41.71 23-10-01 24-07-01 25-04-01 25-12-01 26-09-01 % YoY UTC
PPI farm products
1.6%
+3.5
2026-09-01 · FRED WPU01
-20.00 -10.00 0.000 10.00 2% 25-02-01 15.41 26-02-01 -3.62 26-09-01 1.55 23-10-01 24-07-01 25-04-01 25-12-01 26-09-01 % YoY UTC
PPI manufacturing
12.8%
+2.6
2026-09-01 · FRED PCUOMFGOMFG
0.000 5.00 10.00 2% 25-02-01 0.810 26-02-01 2.68 26-09-01 12.77 23-10-01 24-07-01 25-04-01 25-12-01 26-09-01 % YoY UTC
Inflation expectations
Michigan 1Y inflation exp.
4.6
+0.6
2026-09-01 · FRED MICH
4.00 6.00 3% 24-11-01 2.60 25-05-01 6.60 26-09-01 4.60 23-10-01 24-07-01 25-04-01 25-12-01 26-09-01 % UTC
10Y inflation breakeven
2.4
-0.0
2026-10-01 · FRED T10YIE
2.20 2.30 2.40 26-10-01 2.35 23-11-01 24-08-01 25-05-01 26-01-01 26-10-01 % UTC
Cleveland Fed 1Y expected CPI
3.0
+0.3
2026-10-01 · FRED EXPINF1YR
2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 2% 26-10-01 2.98 23-11-01 24-08-01 25-05-01 26-01-01 26-10-01 % UTC
Factory pulse (public Fed surveys)
Philly Fed factory
20.9
-16.9
2026-10-01 · FRED GACDFSA066MSFRBPHI
-20.00 0.000 20.00 40.00 0 25-12-01 -8.80 26-09-01 37.80 26-10-01 20.90 23-11-01 24-08-01 25-05-01 26-01-01 26-10-01 index UTC
Empire State factory
25.5
+17.9
2026-10-01 · FRED GACDISA066MSFRBNY
-20.00 0.000 20.00 0 25-01-01 -7.40 25-05-01 -6.90 26-10-01 25.50 23-11-01 24-08-01 25-05-01 26-01-01 26-10-01 index UTC
Dallas Fed factory
13.4
+3.6
2026-10-01 · FRED BACTSAMFRBDAL
-40.00 -20.00 0.000 0 25-01-01 14.60 25-05-01 -15.30 26-10-01 13.40 23-11-01 24-08-01 25-05-01 26-01-01 26-10-01 index UTC
Chicago Fed activity
0.1
+0.1
2026-09-01 · FRED CFNAI
-1.00 -0.500 0.000 0.500 0 26-09-01 0.070 23-10-01 24-07-01 25-04-01 25-12-01 26-09-01 index UTC
Labor
Unemployment
4.2
+0.1
2026-09-01 · FRED UNRATE
4.00 4.50 4% 26-09-01 4.20 23-09-01 24-06-01 25-03-01 25-12-01 26-09-01 % UTC