CrowdMood Column
PCE 2026-08: the Fed's favorite is still not the 10-year
PCE headline 131.579 (MoM +0.31%, YoY +3.42%, 2026-08) · Core PCE 130.455 (MoM +0.25%, YoY +3.01%, 2026-08).
The desk read
Core PCE is the series the FOMC quotes. A firm print means the policy rate can ease in the minutes and the market rate can still rise. That is not a paradox on this desk. Energy in CPI and goods in the pipeline keep term premium alive. Nasdaq duration does not get paid because the dots look friendly. Tape: WTI 90.93, US 10Y 5.23.
Market context
These series provide context. Co-movement does not establish causation.