Now Overheating 3M Overheating 6M Late cycle 1Y Late cycle
CPI 3.7% +0.4 CPI energy 20.4% +4.3 PPI 6.3% +0.8 Michigan 4.6 +0.6 Jobless 4.2 +0.1 Philly Fed 20.9 -16.9 WTI 103.2 +1.2 US 10Y 4.989 -0.1 S&P 500 7681.25 -73.0 Nasdaq 100 28966.25 -595.8 Gold 4001.4 -30.0 Dow 52405.0 -107.0 Trident Dow LONG 52405.0 Trident S&P 500 LONG 7681.25 Trident Nasdaq 100 LONG 28966.5 Trident Crude LONG 103.2 Trident Gold LONG 4001.4 Trident Euro LONG 1.1211
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Trident

S&P 500

E-mini S&P 500. Duration prong. · 2026-10-30 03:00 UTC

Last 7681.25

Long

7 bars since last turn

Sample total +23.2% Buy & hold +22.6%
Excess +0.6%
CAGR +11.2% Buy & hold +10.9%
Time in 99.5%
Closed turns 78 Win rate 51.3%
Max pullback -10.9%

Vendor futures price. UTC on the x-axis, price on the y-axis.

7,700.07,800.026-09-3026-10-0726-10-1526-10-2226-10-30PriceUTC

Trident (green) vs holding the contract (grey). Index starts at 100.

TridentBuy & hold124.0126.026-09-3026-10-0726-10-1526-10-2226-10-30IndexUTC

Yahoo vendor futures series, with no heuristic roll-gap deletion. Next-bar model return. Long and short. About two years when available. No costs. Not a live account.

Trade history

  1. 2026-10-08 12:00 UTC · Open Long in 7832.25 -1.9%
  2. 2026-10-06 15:00 UTC Short in 7879.25 +0.6%
  3. 2026-08-10 06:00 UTC Long in 7791.75 +1.1%
  4. 2026-08-04 06:00 UTC Short in 7637.25 -2.0%
  5. 2026-07-22 06:00 UTC Long in 7525.0 +1.5%
  6. 2026-07-13 15:00 UTC Short in 7563.5 +0.5%
  7. 2026-05-20 12:00 UTC Long in 7430.75 +1.8%
  8. 2026-05-07 15:00 UTC Short in 7365.25 -0.9%
  9. 2026-04-30 18:00 UTC Long in 7246.75 +1.6%
  10. 2026-04-29 12:00 UTC Short in 7168.0 -1.1%
  11. 2026-04-22 03:00 UTC Long in 7141.0 +0.4%
  12. 2026-04-15 00:00 UTC Short in 7005.0 -1.9%
  13. 2026-04-09 03:00 UTC Long in 6811.5 +2.8%
  14. 2026-04-02 15:00 UTC Short in 6597.25 -1.1%
  15. 2026-03-18 03:00 UTC Long in 6804.5 -3.0%
  16. 2026-03-11 15:00 UTC Short in 6766.25 -0.6%
  17. 2026-02-25 15:00 UTC Long in 6954.5 -2.7%
  18. 2026-02-23 12:00 UTC Short in 6895.0 -0.9%
  19. 2026-02-18 00:00 UTC Long in 6859.0 +0.5%
  20. 2026-02-10 15:00 UTC Short in 6995.25 +1.9%
  21. 2026-02-03 03:00 UTC Long in 7021.25 -0.4%
  22. 2026-01-28 12:00 UTC Short in 7023.75 0.0%
  23. 2026-01-16 03:00 UTC Long in 7001.25 +0.3%
  24. 2026-01-13 00:00 UTC Short in 7007.25 +0.1%
  25. 2026-01-09 09:00 UTC Long in 6968.0 +0.6%
  26. 2026-01-07 03:00 UTC Short in 6984.25 +0.2%
  27. 2025-12-29 18:00 UTC Long in 6955.25 +0.4%
  28. 2025-12-19 03:00 UTC Short in 6827.75 -1.9%
  29. 2025-12-16 18:00 UTC Long in 6855.5 -0.4%
  30. 2025-12-12 12:00 UTC Short in 6889.0 +0.5%
  31. 2025-12-02 18:00 UTC Long in 6839.25 +0.7%
  32. 2025-11-26 18:00 UTC Short in 6825.25 -0.2%
  33. 2025-11-20 06:00 UTC Long in 6743.75 +3.9%
  34. 2025-11-12 15:00 UTC Short in 6879.25 +2.0%
  35. 2025-10-29 21:00 UTC Long in 6922.25 -0.6%
  36. 2025-10-28 00:00 UTC Short in 6907.75 -0.2%
  37. 2025-10-24 12:00 UTC Long in 6823.0 +1.2%
  38. 2025-10-22 03:00 UTC Short in 6782.25 -0.6%
  39. 2025-10-08 18:00 UTC Long in 6803.25 -0.3%
  40. 2025-10-02 12:00 UTC Short in 6749.75 -0.8%
  41. 2025-09-24 18:00 UTC Long in 6697.0 +0.8%
  42. 2025-09-18 12:00 UTC Short in 6695.75 -0.0%
  43. 2025-09-15 12:00 UTC Long in 6622.5 +1.1%
  44. 2025-09-05 12:00 UTC Short in 6460.25 -2.5%
  45. 2025-08-29 15:00 UTC Long in 6470.75 -0.2%
  46. 2025-08-27 18:00 UTC Short in 6485.25 +0.2%
  47. 2025-07-23 00:00 UTC Long in 6360.25 +2.0%
  48. 2025-07-18 12:00 UTC Short in 6332.5 -0.4%
  49. 2025-07-10 12:00 UTC Long in 6314.75 +0.3%
  50. 2025-07-07 12:00 UTC Short in 6290.0 -0.4%
  51. 2025-07-02 03:00 UTC Long in 6264.5 +0.4%
  52. 2025-06-25 12:00 UTC Short in 6153.75 -1.8%
  53. 2025-06-06 12:00 UTC Long in 6009.5 +2.4%
  54. 2025-06-05 00:00 UTC Short in 5975.0 -0.6%
  55. 2025-05-29 18:00 UTC Long in 5917.25 +1.0%
  56. 2025-05-28 06:00 UTC Short in 5922.75 +0.1%
  57. 2025-05-23 12:00 UTC Long in 5796.0 +2.2%
  58. 2025-05-20 00:00 UTC Short in 5968.75 +2.9%
  59. 2025-05-02 06:00 UTC Long in 5635.75 +5.9%
  60. 2025-04-29 18:00 UTC Short in 5582.75 -0.9%
  61. 2025-04-23 09:00 UTC Long in 5432.0 +2.8%
  62. 2025-04-03 03:00 UTC Short in 5537.25 +8.6%
  63. 2025-03-26 18:00 UTC Long in 5754.75 -1.7%
  64. 2025-03-21 03:00 UTC Short in 5655.5 -1.8%
  65. 2025-03-20 06:00 UTC Long in 5701.75 -0.8%
  66. 2025-03-17 18:00 UTC Short in 5680.25 -0.4%
  67. 2025-03-05 00:00 UTC Long in 5814.0 -2.3%
  68. 2025-02-20 12:00 UTC Short in 6116.75 +4.9%
  69. 2025-02-19 15:00 UTC Long in 6149.5 -0.5%
  70. 2025-02-12 12:00 UTC Short in 6052.75 -1.6%
  71. 2025-02-10 15:00 UTC Long in 6086.75 -0.6%
  72. 2025-02-07 15:00 UTC Short in 6062.25 -0.4%
  73. 2025-01-27 12:00 UTC Long in 6037.0 +0.4%
  74. 2025-01-22 18:00 UTC Short in 6120.0 +1.4%
  75. 2024-12-30 15:00 UTC Long in 5986.75 +2.2%
  76. 2024-12-27 15:00 UTC Short in 5996.0 +0.2%
  77. 2024-12-09 06:00 UTC Long in 6103.5 -1.1%
  78. 2024-11-29 12:00 UTC Short in 6033.0 -1.2%
  79. 2024-11-13 12:00 UTC Long in 6013.5 +0.3%

The curve is the downloaded session sample, marked to market, including the open turn. Long and short stay in the market.

All prongs