Now Overheating 3M Overheating 6M Late cycle 1Y Late cycle
CPI 3.7% +0.4 CPI energy 20.4% +4.3 PPI 6.3% +0.8 Michigan 4.6 +0.6 Jobless 4.2 +0.1 Philly Fed 20.9 -16.9 WTI 103.0 +1.0 US 10Y 4.989 -0.1 S&P 500 7686.75 -67.5 Nasdaq 100 29029.25 -532.8 Gold 4010.9 -20.5 Dow 52423.0 -89.0 Trident Dow LONG 52423.0 Trident S&P 500 LONG 7686.75 Trident Nasdaq 100 LONG 29029.25 Trident Crude LONG 103.0 Trident Gold LONG 4010.9 Trident Euro LONG 1.1206
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Research

Rates · commodities · the cycle
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Trident

Gold

Comex gold. Real-rate prong. · 2026-10-30 03:00 UTC

Last 4010.9

Long

21 bars since last turn

Sample total +7.0% Buy & hold +101.3%
Excess -94.3%
CAGR +3.5% Buy & hold +42.7%
Time in 98.9%
Closed turns 52 Win rate 57.7%
Max pullback -20.2%

Vendor futures price. UTC on the x-axis, price on the y-axis.

4,000.04,200.04,400.04,600.026-08-0426-08-2726-09-1726-10-0726-10-30PriceUTC

Trident (green) vs holding the contract (grey). Index starts at 100.

TridentBuy & hold100.0150.0200.026-08-0426-08-2726-09-1726-10-0726-10-30IndexUTC

Yahoo vendor futures series, with no heuristic roll-gap deletion. Next-bar model return. Long and short. About two years when available. No costs. Not a live account.

Trade history

  1. 2026-09-22 18:00 UTC · Open Long in 4396.2 -8.8%
  2. 2026-09-20 21:00 UTC Short in 4411.6 +0.3%
  3. 2026-08-14 12:00 UTC Long in 4438.6 +1.2%
  4. 2026-08-06 15:00 UTC Short in 4305.8 -3.1%
  5. 2026-08-04 15:00 UTC Long in 4143.1 +3.9%
  6. 2026-07-31 03:00 UTC Short in 4132.1 -0.3%
  7. 2026-07-30 00:00 UTC Long in 4121.4 +0.3%
  8. 2026-07-22 00:00 UTC Short in 4134.7 +0.3%
  9. 2026-05-11 06:00 UTC Long in 4675.9 -6.9%
  10. 2026-05-07 15:00 UTC Short in 4721.1 +1.0%
  11. 2026-03-31 06:00 UTC Long in 4599.0 +2.2%
  12. 2026-03-10 09:00 UTC Short in 5184.2 +9.3%
  13. 2026-03-03 15:00 UTC Long in 5089.5 +1.9%
  14. 2026-03-02 00:00 UTC Short in 5358.8 +0.1%
  15. 2026-02-25 15:00 UTC Long in 5226.5 -0.4%
  16. 2026-02-24 03:00 UTC Short in 5203.0 -0.5%
  17. 2026-02-08 21:00 UTC Long in 5057.4 +2.9%
  18. 2026-01-27 03:00 UTC Short in 5078.1 -14.7%
  19. 2026-01-20 15:00 UTC Long in 4763.7 +6.6%
  20. 2026-01-07 12:00 UTC Short in 4454.6 -6.9%
  21. 2026-01-02 06:00 UTC Long in 4399.2 +1.3%
  22. 2025-12-19 00:00 UTC Short in 4344.2 -1.3%
  23. 2025-10-14 00:00 UTC Long in 4162.6 +7.2%
  24. 2025-10-07 06:00 UTC Short in 3974.1 -4.7%
  25. 2025-10-02 21:00 UTC Long in 3886.8 +2.2%
  26. 2025-09-30 06:00 UTC Short in 3843.8 -1.1%
  27. 2025-09-29 00:00 UTC Long in 3822.1 +0.6%
  28. 2025-09-22 18:00 UTC Short in 3781.2 -1.1%
  29. 2025-09-19 12:00 UTC Long in 3700.8 +2.2%
  30. 2025-09-15 09:00 UTC Short in 3679.6 -0.6%
  31. 2025-09-12 00:00 UTC Long in 3688.7 -0.2%
  32. 2025-08-28 00:00 UTC Short in 3447.9 -7.0%
  33. 2025-08-08 12:00 UTC Long in 3492.8 -1.3%
  34. 2025-08-05 15:00 UTC Short in 3434.8 -1.7%
  35. 2025-07-24 12:00 UTC Long in 3377.7 +1.7%
  36. 2025-07-22 00:00 UTC Short in 3405.7 +0.8%
  37. 2025-05-18 21:00 UTC Long in 3238.4 +5.2%
  38. 2025-05-07 00:00 UTC Short in 3398.2 +4.7%
  39. 2025-04-28 15:00 UTC Long in 3346.7 +1.5%
  40. 2025-04-14 12:00 UTC Short in 3227.9 -3.7%
  41. 2025-03-20 21:00 UTC Long in 3053.9 +8.3%
  42. 2025-03-14 12:00 UTC Short in 2995.8 -1.9%
  43. 2025-02-21 15:00 UTC Long in 2953.9 +1.4%
  44. 2025-02-20 09:00 UTC Short in 2966.2 +0.4%
  45. 2025-02-06 15:00 UTC Long in 2877.5 +3.1%
  46. 2025-01-31 15:00 UTC Short in 2843.1 -1.2%
  47. 2025-01-23 21:00 UTC Long in 2762.2 +2.9%
  48. 2025-01-17 06:00 UTC Short in 2739.7 -0.8%
  49. 2025-01-16 00:00 UTC Long in 2726.5 +0.5%
  50. 2025-01-10 18:00 UTC Short in 2716.7 -0.4%
  51. 2025-01-08 18:00 UTC Long in 2680.6 +1.3%
  52. 2025-01-03 12:00 UTC Short in 2661.5 -0.7%
  53. 2024-11-18 03:00 UTC Long in 2590.0 +2.8%

The curve is the downloaded session sample, marked to market, including the open turn. Long and short stay in the market.

All prongs